Impact Forecasting Platforms
Decision tools & analytics
Most funders make allocation decisions without a clear view of the long-term impact those decisions are likely to generate. This work builds custom forecasting tools that allow funders to estimate and compare the future impact of their investments before capital is deployed.
These tools operate across multiple levels. They can be used to model individual investments, compare groups of investments within a strategy, or project the long-term outcomes of an entire portfolio. This allows funders to understand how different allocation choices translate into real-world impact over time. This includes linking funded programs and interventions to downstream outcomes over time, allowing funders to estimate not just immediate outputs but long-term impact. Outcomes are translated into cost-per-outcome and overall cost-effectiveness, enabling direct, comparable estimates of social return across investments.
Rather than a static model, this is a repeatable decision tool designed to be used continuously as portfolios evolve. Program and learning teams can test scenarios, adjust assumptions, and explore tradeoffs across factors such as evidence strength, execution risk, scale versus depth, and equity. This makes it possible to compare not just expected impact, but the relative social return on investment across different allocation choices.
Each system is custom-built around the funder's strategy, data, and decision process. The result is a clear, interactive view of how capital allocation decisions shape expected outcomes across a portfolio.
What you may receive
- Custom-built impact forecasting tool tailored to your strategy and portfolio
- Ability to model impact at the investment, strategy, and portfolio level
- Scenario analysis across key assumptions and tradeoffs
- Portfolio dashboard with filtering by strategy area and investment type
- Structured inputs linking programs and interventions to long-term outcomes
- Documentation and training for internal use
Pre-Investment (Ex-Ante) Social ROI Analysis
Project-based · 2–4 weeks · Fixed fee
Rapid, decision-ready social ROI analyses for individual investments. Designed for real funding decisions where tradeoffs between options need to be made under time constraints. This is not retrospective evaluation, it is forward-looking analysis designed to inform allocation decisions before capital is deployed.
When a significant investment decision is on the table, this work provides a structured estimate of expected impact before capital is committed, with explicit modeling of uncertainty and sensitivity to key assumptions. It combines predictive modeling with evidence synthesis and explicit assumptions to assess cost-effectiveness and estimate expected social return on investment.
Each analysis translates projected outcomes into cost-per-outcome and social ROI estimates, benchmarking against alternative uses of capital, not just similar programs. This allows funders to understand not just whether an investment works, but how well it performs relative to alternatives. This allows funders to compare the relative social return of different investments, not just assess them in isolation.
The output is designed for decision-making. It is used to strengthen due diligence, support grant and investment approvals, and provide clear, defensible evidence for internal committees and boards.
What you may receive
- Decision-ready model with cost-effectiveness and social ROI estimates
- Evidence and literature synthesis with graded confidence levels
- Explicit assumptions with sensitivity analysis
- Benchmark comparisons to contextualize results
- Short, decision-oriented memo
- Verbal debrief and Q&A session
Timeline & pricing
2–4 week turnaround from project kickoff. Fixed fee per model, scoped based on complexity and data availability. Contact Spencer to discuss scope and fee.
Portfolio Insights & Learning Systems
Infrastructure & capability
Funders collect data but struggle to turn it into timely, decision-relevant insight. The challenge is not collection. It is how to design feedback loops that are practical for investees and useful for funders.
This work focuses on what happens after an investment is made. It defines a right-fit approach to learning that balances what can realistically be measured with what is meaningful for understanding impact. Reporting expectations are designed to reduce burden on investees while still generating insight into whether investments are improving outcomes.
A core part of this approach is moving beyond static, annual surveys. Instead, qualitative data from grantee conversations, transcripts, and reports is structured into usable insight. This allows funders to focus on deeper, more meaningful conversations with their partners rather than compliance-driven reporting.
These systems are co-designed and built with each funder using their own data, workflows, and decision processes. Rather than a standalone product, they are tailored to how each organization operates. This allows teams to ask natural language questions across their portfolio and access both qualitative and quantitative insights in real time.
This makes it easier to identify patterns, compare investments, and surface what is working without waiting for end-of-year reports. The approach prioritizes faster feedback cycles so funders can continuously learn and adjust their strategies based on emerging evidence.
What you may receive
- Post-investment learning strategy tailored to your portfolio and constraints
- Reporting and feedback loop design that balances rigor and feasibility
- Structured approach to capturing and using qualitative insights from grantee conversations
- AI-powered interface for querying portfolio data in natural language
- Faster learning cycles to inform ongoing funding decisions
Outcome & Measurement Strategy for Funders
Strategy-level engagement
Funders often measure what is easy to track, but not what reflects true impact. This work defines what success should look like before measurement systems and models are built.
The focus is on aligning funding strategy to a clear set of outcomes tied to real-world change, not just outputs or activities. This includes defining which outcomes matter most, for whom, and over what timeframe, so impact can be assessed consistently across a portfolio.
This work develops a tailored approach to measuring impact that reflects your strategy, constraints, and decision context. Metrics are designed to support real decisions, not just reporting.
The result is a clear set of outcome definitions, metrics, and learning priorities that enable more consistent evaluation of investments and better alignment between strategy and measurement.
What you may receive
- Impact strategy aligned to core outcomes and target populations
- Portfolio-level outcome metrics framework (beyond outputs)
- Clear definitions of success across investments
- Measurement approach tailored to evidence constraints
- Learning agenda tied directly to funding decisions